UFC Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, May 16, 2026 — UFC Fight Night

Analysis

Shauna Bannon carries a 7-2 record into this strawweight prelim against Nicolle Caliari who sits at 8-4. The model gives Bannon a 51.8 percent chance to win. That creates a 21.9 percent edge on her moneyline at plus 235. She owns a three inch reach advantage and the fight is projected to go the distance 55 percent of the time. Both women prefer to trade on the feet so the longer reach should play into Bannon's favor over three rounds. Caliari has shown vulnerability when opponents keep the fight at range and Bannon should be able to land the cleaner strikes. The model sees this one landing in a decision and Bannon is the clear value at these numbers.

Public Fade

The public is laying heavy money on Caliari at minus 290 because of her record. They are ignoring the reach disadvantage and the fact that Caliari has been outstruck in her last three fights against similar competition.

Analysis

Juan Diaz enters at 15-1-1 against Malcolm Wellmaker who is 10-1. The model gives Diaz a 52.4 percent win probability. That creates a 21.2 percent edge on his moneyline at plus 210. Diaz has one extra fight of experience and has shown the ability to control opponents on the mat. Wellmaker has power but the reach advantage of two inches belongs to him yet the model still leans Diaz. The fight projects to go the distance in 46 percent of simulations and the model sees a decision as the most likely outcome. Diaz has fought tougher competition lately and his experience should carry him in a close bout.

Public Fade

The public is betting Wellmaker at minus 258 because of the recent win streak. They are overlooking Diaz's experience edge and the fact that Wellmaker has not faced anyone with Diaz's finishing rate.

Analysis

Polyana Viana brings a 13-8 record into this strawweight bout against Alice Ardelean who sits at 11-7. The model gives Viana a 51.8 percent chance to win. That creates a 14.1 percent edge on her moneyline at plus 165. Viana owns a five inch reach advantage that should allow her to control the pace from range. The fight projects to go the distance in 55 percent of simulations and the model sees a decision as the most likely outcome. Ardelean has been finished in her last two losses and Viana's reach should keep her out of danger. This is the strongest confidence edge of the three at 83 percent.

Public Fade

The public is laying money on Ardelean at minus 185 because of her recent wins. They are ignoring Viana's reach advantage and the fact that Ardelean has struggled against longer fighters in the past.