MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, August 6, 2026

Analysis

David Peterson versus Dylan Cease looks like a mismatch on paper. Peterson is carrying a 6.09 ERA while Cease is sitting at a crisp 2.41. But look at the offenses. The Chicago Cubs have the second best offense in baseball. They score 5.1 runs per game. The Toronto Blue Jays are literally the worst offense in the league, ranked 30th. They only manage 3.9 runs per game. Cease has been incredible with a 1.20 ERA lately, but he can't drive in runs for himself. The Cubs are playing much better baseball right now. They've won three in a row and are 7 and 3 over their last ten games. Toronto is 6 and 4 in their last ten. Even if Cease shuts them down for six innings, the Cubs should be able to get to the Toronto bullpen or keep the game within a run. The model sees a big edge on the Cubs at plus 1.5 because they simply find ways to win. They also allow 4.9 runs per game while Toronto only allows 2.7, which explains why the total is sitting at 7.5. That number feels low for a David Peterson start. He has been better recently with a 4.90 ERA, but that is still plenty of room for the over to hit. Expect the Cubs to keep it tight in a game that might have more fireworks than the books think.

Public Fade

The public sees Dylan Cease on the mound and immediately thinks Toronto is a lock. They are ignoring the fact that the Blue Jays have the worst offense in the league and can't provide him any run support.

Analysis

This is a battle of two struggling offenses. The Cleveland Guardians rank 29th in the league and the New York Mets rank 27th. When you see a total of 7.5 with these two teams, the under has to be the first look. Nolan McLean is the real deal for the Mets right now. His season ERA is 3.29, but his recent form is even better at 1.79. He is facing a Cleveland lineup that is only 3 and 7 in their last ten games. Foster Griffin starts for Cleveland and he has been solid with a 3.06 ERA. The Mets have already taken two games from the Guardians this season with an average margin of 2.5 runs. The model puts the spread at minus 1.3, which gives us a nearly 10 percent edge on the Mets getting 1.5 runs. New York is 5 and 5 in their last ten and seems to have the upper hand in the head to head matchup this year. Cleveland is scoring fewer than four runs a game on average. If McLean continues his recent dominance, the Mets will not need much offense to cover this spread or even win the game outright. It is a low scoring environment where every run is at a premium, making that 1.5 run cushion very valuable for New York.

Public Fade

Most casual bettors will back the home team in a pick em style game, especially against a Mets team with a losing record. They are missing how dominant Nolan McLean has been lately.

Analysis

The San Diego Padres are the hottest team in this matchup. They have gone 8 and 2 over their last ten games and are currently on a winning streak. Arizona is playing decent ball at 5 and 5 in their last ten, but they are running into a buzzsaw. Walker Buehler is starting for San Diego, and while his overall numbers are ugly with a 5.18 ERA, the Padres are finding ways to win when he pitches. He has struggled recently with a 7.57 ERA, but the San Diego defense is ranked 13th and has been bailing out the pitching staff. Arizona sends Kohl Drake to the mound with a 4.85 ERA. The Diamondbacks have a slight edge in the season series at 5 and 4, but the momentum is clearly with the visitors. The total is set at 9, which feels high despite Buehler's struggles. The model actually leans toward the under here with a 2.3 percent edge. Both teams have middle of the pack offenses, with Arizona at 11th and San Diego at 21st. The Padres are getting 1.5 runs here, and with the way they are playing, they could easily win this as an underdog. Getting the extra runs with an 8 and 2 team is a gift. Trust the hot hand and take the Padres to keep this one close in a game that might stay under the high total.

Public Fade

People see Walker Buehler and assume he is still an ace, or they see his high ERA and hammer the over. They are overlooking the Padres' incredible 8 and 2 run over their last ten games.