NHL Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 31, 2026

Analysis

Montreal comes in at 48 and 24 while Carolina sits at 53 and 22. Both teams have shown they can play tight games when the stakes are high. The model projects this one at 5.9 goals, which sits well below the posted total of 6.5. That gap creates the edge. Carolina plays a structured style that limits high danger chances. Montreal has leaned on strong goaltending all season to stay in games even when outshot. When both sides prioritize defense over run and gun hockey, the totals tend to come in under the number. The start time at 4pm eastern also plays a role. Afternoon games often lack the same energy as night contests, especially this late in the year. Both teams have had time to prepare and study tendencies. That preparation usually leads to fewer mistakes and fewer odd man rushes. The model sees value because the line hasn't adjusted enough to account for how these two teams match up stylistically. Carolina's speed can be neutralized by Montreal's positioning. When that happens the game slows down. Fewer shots. Fewer goals. The under becomes the clear side here.

Public Fade

The public sees two high powered offenses and assumes goals will flow. They are missing how both teams tighten up in big spots. The line is inflated by reputation rather than how these clubs actually play each other.