NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Analysis

The Knicks are laying less than a bucket at home and I'm all over it. New York has handled business against San Antonio all season. They've won four of the six meetings so far with an average margin of six points. That's more than double the current spread. My model sees this line should be closer to three or four points. New York brings a top ten offense into this matchup and they're facing a Spurs defense that's solid but vulnerable. The Knicks score 117.1 points per game while keeping opponents to just 109. And they've been especially sharp at Madison Square Garden where they cover the spread 55 percent of the time. The matchup on the other side of the ball is where things get interesting. San Antonio has the fourth ranked offense in the league and scores 118.1 per game. But the Knicks counter that with the fourth ranked defense. It's strength on strength. San Antonio gives up 110.3 points per game, which tells me they can be exploited by a disciplined New York squad. When you look at the season series, New York has consistently found ways to disrupt the Spurs rhythm. The model is leaning toward the under for a reason. Both these teams can lock in defensively when the stakes are high. Taking the Knicks at minus two and a half feels like the safest play on the board. They've proven they can win these games by two possessions or more. Don't overthink the small number. Trust the home court advantage and the season long dominance New York has shown in this specific matchup.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see the Spurs high powered offense and assume they'll keep it close or win outright. They're ignoring the fact that New York has controlled this series and matches up perfectly to neutralize San Antonio's strengths.