NBA Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 24, 2026

Analysis

The model sees San Antonio as a 3.5 point better team than the market is pricing. That gap creates the 6.4 percent edge on the Spurs minus two and a half. San Antonio scores 118.8 per game while allowing 110.8. Oklahoma City puts up 119.3 but gives up 107.3. The numbers are close on paper but the injury math tilts the table. Oklahoma City is missing Ajay Mitchell. That creates a 2.5 point net injury edge in San Antonio's favor. The Spurs offense ranks fourth against the Thunder defense that sits second overall. Meanwhile the Oklahoma City offense ranks third against a Spurs defense that checks in sixth. Those are not mismatches but they are not the kind of edges that justify laying points either. Head to head this season the teams split four games with an average margin of just 1.8 points. San Antonio covers 57 percent at home. The model spread sits at minus 1.9 but the line opened at minus 2.5. Seventy percent of books are at that number while the model wants closer to even money. That disconnect is where the value lives.

Public Fade

The public sees Oklahoma City as the better team and assumes the road favorites cover. They ignore the injury to Mitchell and the fact that San Antonio is actually the better squad when both sides are healthy. The model disagrees with the market price.