MLS Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Analysis

Charlotte hosts New York City tonight. Both sit at 4-5-3, but the model sees value on the visitors. Spread comes in at Charlotte minus 0.5. Model projects just minus 0.2, giving us a 6.8% edge to bet NYC plus 0.5. Charlotte scores 1.7 per game but allows 1.8. New York City scores 1.8 and allows only 1.5. That's a tighter defense facing a middling attack. Matchup tilts NYC's way too. Charlotte's offense ranks 13th of 30 against New York City's 12th ranked defense. Flip it, New York City's eighth ranked offense goes up against Charlotte's 21st ranked defense. That's exploitable. Head to head this season, Charlotte won 1-0 by one goal. Close margins like that scream cover for the plus side. Model spread sits at minus 0.4 overall, with books heavy at minus 0.5 and model leaning minus 0.3 in spots. Public overlooks New York City's edge in scoring and defending. They push pace enough to keep it within one. Draw probability baked in too. This hits 70% of sims. Charlotte not blowing anyone out at home.

Public Fade

Everyone's on Charlotte because they're home and won the earlier matchup. But that was a one goal game. Public ignores New York City's better offense rank and Charlotte's leaky 21st defense.

Analysis

New England hosts Nashville. Revolution at 7-3-1, Nashville 7-1-3. Line has Nashville laying 0.25. Model says plus 0.2, so we grab New England plus 0.25 for 2.2% edge. Nashville scores 2.1 per game, stingy allowing 0.7. New England at 1.8 scored, 1.2 allowed. Solid numbers both ways. Key here: Nashville on a back to back and traveling. New England gets four days rest. That matters in MLS grind. Matchups tight. New England 10th offense versus Nashville's fourth defense. Nashville's fourth offense against New England's sixth defense. Not a slaughter. Head to head, Nashville won 1-0 by three goals average. But rest advantage flips script. Model spread 0.1, books at 0.25 with model eyeing minus 0.1 spots. New England keeps it close at home. Fatigue hits Nashville's attack. Draw chance high too. We cover in most scenarios. Revolution's form says they hang tough.

Public Fade

Public loves Nashville's record and low goals allowed. They forget the back to back travel. New England's rest and home edge get ignored.

Analysis

Montreal hosts Portland. CF Montréal 4-7-0, Timbers 4-6-1. Moneyline has Montreal at minus 107. Model gives them 63.2% win probability, 11.5% edge. Straight bet the home win. Montreal scores 1.4, allows 2.1. Portland 1.7 scored, 1.9 allowed. Both leaky, but setup favors home. Portland on back to back and traveling. Montreal rested four days. Massive. Matchups scream goals but home edge. Montreal 21st offense hits Portland's 24th defense. Portland's 12th offense faces Montreal's 26th ranked unit. Montreal's D is bad, but Portland fatigued won't capitalize. Spread model minus 0.5 matches line, but we lean the ML with strong win prob. Books at minus 0.5 heavy, model minus 0.4 to minus 0.3. Portland struggles on road weary. Montreal grinds out the win outright. 88% confidence here. Highest of the slate. They take it 2-1 or better in sims.

Public Fade

Folks pile on Portland's slightly better record and scoring. Overlook the rest disparity completely. Montreal's home spot undervalued.