MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, July 26, 2026

Analysis

The board is screaming for runs in Pittsburgh today. We have a total sitting at 8.5 but the model is calling for 9.5. That is a massive 12.2 percent edge. Look at the guys on the mound. Braxton Ashcraft has a decent season ERA of 3.95 but he has been getting shelled lately. Over his most recent starts that number has ballooned to 6.79. He is not missing bats and his command has vanished. On the other side you have Jameson Taillon who has been a disaster all year with a 5.38 ERA. His recent form is just as bad at 6.62. These are two pitchers trending in the wrong direction at the exact same time. The offenses are more than capable of taking advantage. Pittsburgh ranks second in the league in offense and Chicago ranks fourth. These are heavy hitters. Even though the Cubs defense is solid at eleventh overall, the Pirates are much worse at twenty third. The Pirates score over five runs per game and allow nearly five. The Cubs follow a similar script. They score 5.1 and give up 5.3. When you put two top five offenses against two struggling starters, the over is the only play. The head to head matchups this year show the Cubs have a slight edge but the real story is the lack of pitching depth. Trust the model and take the over.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see Taillon and think he can still eat innings. They are ignoring his recent 6.62 ERA and the fact that Pittsburgh has the second best offense in baseball. The public is playing the names instead of the current form.

Analysis

Atlanta and Baltimore are both playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. Both teams have gone 7 and 3 over their last ten games. When you have two hot squads meeting, the total often feels a bit low. The books have this at 8.5 but our model sees 9.1 runs. That gives us a strong 7 percent edge on the over. Shane Baz is taking the hill for Baltimore with a 4.13 ERA. He is serviceable but Atlanta features the sixth best offense in the league. They are going to put pressure on him from the first inning. Reynaldo Lopez gets the start for the Braves. While his season ERA of 3.95 looks fine, he has been shaky lately. His recent ERA is up to 4.89. That is nearly a full run higher than his season average. Baltimore has the twelfth ranked offense so they are not exactly pushovers. The Braves defense is elite but their pitching is showing cracks. The Braves cover the spread 56 percent of the time on the road which tells me they keep games competitive and high scoring. Baltimore covers 55 percent of the time at home. Both teams have the firepower to push this past the 8.5 mark. It might be a sweat but the numbers favor the bats over the arms in this environment.

Public Fade

The public loves the under in Atlanta games because of their defensive reputation. But Lopez is sliding and these two offenses are both in the top twelve. The total is just too low for this matchup.

Analysis

The Phillies are favored here but the value is entirely on the Yankees plus 1.5. Philadelphia has been a nightmare for bettors at home this season. They only cover the spread 39 percent of the time in their own ballpark. That is one of the worst marks in the league. Meanwhile the Yankees are road warriors. They cover 53 percent of the time when they are away from the Bronx. Our model sees a much tighter game than the books do. The model spread is only 0.6 while the line is 1.5. That represents a 10.7 percent edge for New York. The pitching matchup is fascinating. Cristopher Sanchez has a sparkling 2.71 season ERA. But look closer. His recent form shows a 6.59 ERA. He is hitting a wall. The Yankees offense ranks tenth and they will exploit a pitcher who is struggling to find his spots. On the other side Will Warren has also been rough lately but the Yankees defense is the real star. They rank third in the league. Philadelphia offense is only nineteenth. They have struggled to produce runs consistently. New York has already beaten Philadelphia twice this season with an average margin of 1.5 runs. The Yankees are the more balanced team right now. Taking the runs with a team that has already proven they can beat this opponent is the smart move.

Public Fade

The public is blinded by the Phillies home record and Sanchez's season ERA. They are ignoring the fact that Philly is one of the worst teams in the league against the spread at home. The Yankees are the sharper side here.