MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, July 25, 2026

Analysis

The Pirates and Cubs are meeting for the ninth time this season. The series is currently split four to four. Paul Skenes is on the mound for Pittsburgh. While his season ERA is a solid 3.43, he has struggled recently with a 5.31 mark over his last few starts. That is a massive jump in runs allowed. On the other side, Shota Imanaga has been steady but not untouchable with a 3.91 ERA. The model is screaming at this total. The book has it at 7.5, but our model projects 8.8 runs. That is a 17.4 percent edge. Pittsburgh boasts the second best offense in the league. They score 5.3 runs per game. Chicago is not far behind at fourth. They put up 5.1 runs per game. Both these teams can rake. The Cubs defense is solid but the Pirates defense is ranked 22nd. That is a recipe for a high scoring affair. Skenes might be the future of the sport, but right now he is giving up more hits than usual. The model sees the Pirates winning a close one, but the real value is in the over. We are taking the over 7.5 and not looking back. It is the strongest play on the entire board for Saturday.

Public Fade

Bettors see the names Skenes and Imanaga and immediately think of a pitcher duel. They are ignoring the recent form where Skenes is getting hit harder than earlier in the summer.

Analysis

The Giants are hosting the Angels in what looks like a battle of the cellar dwellers. Both teams are well under .500. San Francisco is favored by one and a half runs, but the model thinks that is way too much respect. Our projection has the Giants as only 0.7 run favorites. That gives us a 9.6 percent edge on the Angels +1.5 spread. Robbie Ray is starting for the Giants and he has been fantastic lately with a 1.45 ERA in recent starts. But the Giants offense is terrible. They rank 26th in the league and only score 4.1 runs per game. The Angels are sending Ryan Johnson to the hill. His 6.10 season ERA looks scary, but look closer. His recent ERA is 2.52. He has figured something out. The Angels offense is actually better than the Giants, ranking 18th in the league. They score 4.3 runs per game. San Francisco won the only previous meeting this year by two runs, but these teams are much closer in talent than the odds suggest. Betting on two bad teams is never pretty. But the numbers say the Angels keep this within a run or win outright. Take the runs with Los Angeles.

Public Fade

The public is blinded by Robbie Ray and his recent dominance. They are forgetting that the Giants offense is one of the worst in baseball and rarely covers large spreads.

Analysis

The Dodgers are in New York to face a Mets team that has completely lost its way. Los Angeles has 65 wins and looks like a lock for the postseason. The Mets are 17 games under .500. We have a massive mismatch here. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is starting for the Dodgers. He is one of the best in the business with a 2.78 ERA. The Mets are countering with Nolan McLean, who has been good, but he is facing the third best offense in baseball. The Dodgers score 5.2 runs per game and they have a defense that ranks number one in the majors. The model has a strong 9.3 percent edge on the over 7.5. While Yamamoto is elite, the Dodgers offense can usually cover this total by themselves. They have already beaten the Mets four times this season with an average margin of over three runs. The Mets offense is 27th in the league. They will struggle to get anything going against Yamamoto. But the Dodgers should tee off on the Mets bullpen later in the game. We are also backing the Dodgers on the moneyline. A 37.4 percent win probability for the Mets is generous. The Dodgers are the better team in every single facet of the game.

Public Fade

Casual fans might think the Mets are due for a win or that McLean can outduel Yamamoto. The reality is the Dodgers have owned this head to head matchup all year.