MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, July 24, 2026

Analysis

The Pirates and Cubs are meeting in a matchup that screams offensive fireworks. Our model is hammering the over here with a massive 15.3 percent edge. Pittsburgh comes in with the number two offense in the entire league. They are putting up 5.3 runs per game. Chicago is not far behind with the number four ranked offense, averaging 5.1 runs of their own. When you put two top five offenses on the same field, a total of 8 feels like a gift from the books. Jared Jones is starting for the Pirates and while his recent 2.43 ERA looks sharp, he is facing a Cubs lineup that is firing on all cylinders. On the other side, Matthew Boyd has been solid lately but the Pirates have historically given him trouble. The Pirates defense is currently ranked 22nd in the league, which means even if Jones pitches well, mistakes behind him could lead to runs. The model projects this total at 9.2 runs. That is a full run and a quarter higher than the current line. Pittsburgh has won 4 of 7 games against the Cubs this season. Most of those games have been tight, but the scoring has been consistent. With the way these two teams are hitting the ball right now, we expect them to clear 8 runs by the seventh inning. Don't overthink the pitching stats. Great hitting beats great pitching in the heat of July.

Public Fade

The public sees two starting pitchers with ERA numbers under 3.00 in their recent starts and they immediately think under. They are ignoring that these are two of the top four offenses in baseball and the Pirates have a bottom tier defense.

Analysis

The Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now. They have won 9 of their last 10 games and are looking like a serious threat in the American League. Toronto is heading the opposite direction, going 3 and 7 over their last ten. The Blue Jays are also dealing with a rough schedule. They are playing on a back to back and had to travel to Boston while the Red Sox enjoyed two days of rest. That rest advantage is huge in the middle of the summer. Even though the Red Sox are playing well, our model sees a lot of value in the total too. Toronto has the worst offense in the league, ranked 30th out of 30 teams. They are only scoring 3.9 runs per game. Boston has a top tier defense, ranked 3rd in the league. Patrick Sandoval has struggled a bit this year with a 4.82 ERA, but facing the league's worst offense is the perfect spot for him to bounce back. Trey Yesavage has been a bright spot for Toronto with a 3.78 ERA. He should be able to keep the Red Sox bats somewhat quiet early on. Boston is only scoring 4.2 runs per game themselves. The model projects this game to end with about 8.2 total runs, giving us a solid edge on the under 8.5. We also like Boston to keep it close or win outright, as they are the much more consistent team right now.

Public Fade

Bettors often look at the season head to head where Toronto has won 5 of 6 games. But that was a different Toronto team. Right now, the Blue Jays are the worst offense in baseball and are playing on zero rest.

Analysis

This is a heavyweight battle between two teams with 56 and 57 wins. The Phillies are sending Jesus Luzardo to the mound, and he has been absolutely lights out lately. He has a 1.13 ERA over his recent starts. However, the Yankees offense is a different beast. They are ranked 10th in the league and score 4.7 runs per game. Even a pitcher as hot as Luzardo is going to have his hands full with the New York lineup. The real reason we like the over 7.5 here is the Yankees starter. Will Warren has been struggling lately, posting a 6.46 ERA in his recent outings. He also has a WHIP of 1.37, which is well above the league average. The Phillies offense is ranked 18th but they are efficient at home. They should be able to jump on Warren early and often. The model has this spread much closer than the books do. While the Phillies are the favorites, the Yankees are 7 and 3 in their last ten games and have shown they can win in hostile environments. They cover the run line 51 percent of the time on the road. We are leaning toward New York +1.5 because they have a way of keeping games competitive even when their pitching is shaky. But the strongest play is that over. With Warren on the mound and the Yankees bats rolling, 7.5 runs is a very low bar to clear.

Public Fade

The public is backing the Phillies because of Luzardo's recent dominance. They are ignoring that Will Warren is a massive liability for the Yankees right now, which makes the over the much smarter play than picking a side.