MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, July 23, 2026

Analysis

Gavin Williams has a 4.00 ERA on the season, but that number is a bit misleading right now. He has been tagged for a 4.63 ERA over his most recent starts and the command just hasn't been there. Minnesota brings the eighth best offense in the league to town. They score nearly five runs per game on average and they are patient at the plate. While Taj Bradley has been solid with a 3.19 ERA lately, the model sees this game flying past the 7.5 line. The edge here is 12.2 percent. That is a massive gap for a mid season total. Cleveland is playing well right now with a seven and three record over their last ten games. They are finding ways to score even with a lower ranked offense. The Twins defense ranks near the bottom at twenty sixth in the league. This creates a perfect storm for runs to be scored in bunches. We have two pitchers who can be volatile and one lineup that ranks in the top ten. And the Guardians have won seven of their last ten. They are feeling themselves at the plate. My model projects this total at 8.4 runs. That is nearly a full run higher than the current market price. We are taking the over and not looking back. This is easily my favorite play on the entire board today.

Public Fade

The public sees two decent starters and thinks this will be a pitcher's duel. They are ignoring the fact that the Twins have a top ten offense and Cleveland has been scoring at a high clip during their recent seven and three stretch.

Analysis

Shane Bieber is a name people recognize, but the 2026 version is struggling. He carries a 5.70 ERA into this game and has looked vulnerable in almost every start. Toronto as a team is giving up 5.2 runs per game. That is a recipe for disaster against a Rays team that is sixteen games over five hundred. Tampa Bay has absolutely dominated this head to head matchup this season. They have won eight of the nine meetings so far. The average margin in those games is nearly three runs. Toronto has the worst ranked offense in baseball. They are dead last at thirtieth. Trying to cover a run and a half with the worst offense in the league against a top ten defense is a tall task. The model gives Tampa Bay a huge edge at plus one and a half. Even if they don't win outright, they stay close. But given the history this year, they likely win. The Rays cover on the road over half the time. Toronto only covers forty two percent of their home games at Rogers Centre. The value is clearly on the visitors here. We are getting a superior team with a run and a half cushion against a struggling starter. It is a no brainer.

Public Fade

Bettors often see Shane Bieber and assume the Blue Jays have the pitching advantage. The reality is that Bieber has been a liability this year and the Rays have won 8 of 9 against Toronto this season.

Analysis

This is a classic pitching duel that the market hasn't fully adjusted for yet. Michael McGreevy has been lights out with a 2.92 ERA. He is the primary reason the Cardinals allow only 3.4 runs per game on average. He keeps the ball in the park and doesn't beat himself with walks. On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt has a 4.58 season ERA, but you have to look at his recent form. He has been pitching to a 2.96 ERA lately. Both of these starters are in a groove. The Diamondbacks are seven and three in their last ten games. They are playing tight, low scoring baseball right now. The model puts this total at 7.7 runs. The book is giving us 8. St. Louis has an average offense and Arizona is right there with them. Neither team is explosive enough to justify this total against these two specific starters. Arizona has won four of the six meetings this year. Most of those have been close battles. We are trusting the arms in this spot. The under is the only way to look when McGreevy is on the mound. And with Pfaadt finding his rhythm, runs will be at a premium. Expect a fast game with plenty of zeros on the scoreboard.

Public Fade

People see Pfaadt's season ERA and think they can catch an over. They are missing his recent 2.96 ERA and the fact that McGreevy has been one of the most consistent arms in the National League all year.