MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Analysis

The Dodgers are catching a run and a half tonight despite being the superior team in almost every statistical category. Zack Wheeler is a monster for Philly with a 2.13 ERA, but the Dodgers counter with Justin Wrobleski. He has been lights out recently with a 2.17 ERA over his last few starts. Philadelphia has been shaky at home against the spread, covering only 40 percent of their games at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are a top three offense in the league and score over five runs per game. The Phillies offense is much further down the list at 17th. The model sees this spread closer to 0.6 runs, which gives us a massive 11.2 percent edge on the Dodgers +1.5. These teams have split their four meetings this season, and the average margin has been exactly one run. That makes the insurance of a run and a half very valuable. We also have a strong lean on the over 8.5. Even with elite starters, these lineups are too deep to stay quiet for long. The Dodgers defense is the best in baseball, but Wheeler has been known to give up a few long balls. This should be a high level battle that stays within a single run. Take the Dodgers to keep it close or win outright in a game that likely features plenty of baserunners.

Public Fade

Bettors are blinded by Zack Wheeler and his elite season stats at home. They are ignoring the fact that Wrobleski has been just as good lately and the Dodgers have the much better lineup from top to bottom.

Analysis

We have a real pitching struggle on our hands in Texas tonight. Kumar Rocker has been getting crushed lately, posting a 6.92 ERA over his most recent starts. Noah Schultz for the White Sox has not been much better with a 5.60 season ERA and a 6.59 mark recently. Because of these shaky arms, the model sees a big edge on the over 8.5. Chicago actually has a top ten offense, ranking 7th in the league for scoring. They should be able to feast on Rocker, who has struggled with a 1.37 WHIP this year. Texas is the home favorite, but the White Sox have been the better team lately. Chicago has 6 wins in their last 10 games while Texas is just 5 and 5. The White Sox cover the spread in 53 percent of their road games, and the model thinks this line is inflated. We are getting an 10.8 percent edge on Chicago +1.5. Even with the loss of Kyle Teel to injury, the White Sox have the offensive firepower to keep up with a Texas team that ranks 24th in scoring. In their only meeting this season, Chicago blew them out by six runs. Expect another high scoring affair where the visitors do enough to stay within the number. The total is the strongest play here, but the spread value on the dogs is too high to ignore.

Public Fade

The public is laying the runs with Texas because they assume the White Sox are a pushover on the road. They are missing the fact that Chicago has a top ten offense and Texas has a pitcher who is currently in a tailspin.

Analysis

The Cubs are sitting in a great spot as home underdogs today. David Peterson is on the mound for Chicago, and his numbers are honestly terrifying. He has a 6.09 ERA on the season and has been shelled for an 8.82 ERA in his recent outings. However, the Cubs offense is one of the best in baseball, ranking 4th in total scoring. They average over five runs per game and have been on a tear lately. Chicago has 7 wins in their last 10 games and looks to keep that momentum going against a Detroit team that is hovering below .500. The Tigers have Framber Valdez on the hill, and while he is a solid pitcher, the Detroit offense is weak. They rank 20th in the league and only put up 4.2 runs per game. The model actually gives the Cubs a slight 50.7 percent chance to win this game outright, so getting them at +1.5 is a gift. We have a 10 percent edge on that spread. The total of 8.5 also looks low given Peterson's struggles. Detroit should be able to score more than usual against him, while the Cubs bats are capable of getting to Valdez. Chicago covers 40 percent of the time at home, but this matchup against a bottom tier offense like Detroit is a different story. I am taking the runs with the home team and expecting a back and forth battle that goes over the total.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see Peterson's 8.82 recent ERA and immediately bet against him. They are ignoring that the Cubs have the 4th best offense in the league and match up very well against Valdez.