MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, July 20, 2026

Analysis

The Minnesota Twins are visiting Cleveland for a massive divisional matchup and the market is giving us a gift with this price. Joe Ryan takes the mound for Minnesota and he has been a pillar of consistency this season with a 2.85 ERA. While his recent form shows a slight bump to 4.50 over his last few starts, his season long metrics are far superior to Tanner Bibee. Bibee is sitting with a 3.90 ERA and he faces a Twins offense that ranks ninth in the league. Minnesota is scoring 4.8 runs per game while Cleveland is dead last in the majors in offensive production. It is hard to justify Cleveland as a favorite when they cannot put runs on the board. Our model also loves the over here. The line is set at 7.5 but our projection sees this game landing closer to 8.4 runs. That is a massive 11.9 percent edge on the over. Even though Cleveland struggles to score, Minnesota has a defense that ranks twenty fifth in the league. They give up plenty of opportunities. If Ryan is even slightly off his game like he has been recently, this total will fly past the number. Cleveland covers the spread in 49 percent of their home games but the Twins are much more reliable on the road with a 53 percent cover rate. Take the better offense and the better pitcher at a near even price.

Public Fade

The public sees the Guardians with a better overall record and assumes they should be the play at home. They are ignoring that the Twins offense is significantly more explosive and that Joe Ryan is a top tier starter despite a few shaky outings lately.

Analysis

This game is a tale of two pitchers moving in opposite directions. Jose Soriano starts for the Angels and he has been struggling mightily. His season ERA is 3.49 but that number is a bit misleading when you look at his recent form. He has posted a 6.38 ERA over his last few appearances. On the other side, Kyle Leahy is absolutely locked in for the Cardinals. Leahy has a season ERA of 3.73 but has been nearly untouchable recently with a 1.43 ERA. When you have one starter trending toward the moon and the other falling off a cliff, you take the hot hand every single time. The Angels have been miserable lately with a 2 for 8 record in their last ten games. They are a team that looks like they have checked out while St Louis is still fighting in the middle of the pack. The Cardinals offense ranks thirteenth in the league which should be more than enough to handle an Angels defense that ranks twenty fourth. St Louis also covers the spread in 59 percent of their road games. Our model has the Cardinals winning this game outright so getting 1.5 runs of insurance is a massive value. The total of 8.5 feels a bit high given how well Leahy is pitching. We are leaning toward the under because the Angels offense is middle of the road and likely to struggle against a pitcher in peak form.

Public Fade

Bettors often look at the Angels at home and think they can keep it close against a mediocre St Louis team. They are missing the fact that Soriano is currently a liability and the Angels are in a tailspin losing 8 of their last 10 games.

Analysis

The Phillies are favorites at home today but the value is clearly on the Dodgers side. Philadelphia is starting Cristopher Sanchez who has a great 2.62 ERA on the season. But he got shelled in his most recent outing with a 7.40 ERA in that span. If he is still dealing with whatever caused that blowup, the Dodgers offense will feast. Los Angeles has the third best offense in baseball and they score 5.2 runs per game. They are facing a Phillies defense that is league average at best. The Dodgers have already taken two of three from Philly this season with an average margin of victory over two runs. Philadelphia has been a poor bet at home this season covering the spread in only 39 percent of their games at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile the Dodgers are a solid road team with a 53 percent cover rate. Emmet Sheehan is starting for LA and while his 4.81 ERA is not pretty, the Dodgers offense is more than capable of bailing him out. Our model projects this game to go over the 8.5 total because both teams have the power to put up big numbers. The Phillies offense is nineteenth in the league and they should be able to get to Sheehan. But in a high scoring environment, I want the team with the superior lineup and the extra runs on the spread. Take the Dodgers to keep this within a run or win it outright.

Public Fade

People are backing the Phillies because of Cristopher Sanchez and his shiny season ERA. They are ignoring his recent collapse and the fact that the Dodgers have consistently beat this team and covered the spread on the road all year.