MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, July 19, 2026

Analysis

Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs and while his season ERA of 4.17 looks pedestrian, he has been much sharper lately with a 3.52 mark over his recent starts. But do not let that fool you into thinking this will be a pitcher's duel. The Twins are coming into Wrigley as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning seven of their last ten games and carrying a three game winning streak. Their offense is ranked eighth in the majors and they are facing a Cubs defense that ranks middle of the pack at fifteenth. On the flip side, the Cubs offense is even more dangerous, sitting at fifth in the league. They get to face Zebby Matthews, who carries a 4.57 ERA and has struggled to keep runners off the basepaths. The model is extremely bullish on the over here, projecting 8.7 runs against a posted total of 7.5. That is a massive 16.4 percent edge. Both teams are averaging around five runs per game and the head to head history this season shows a very tight margin. Minnesota has also been a reliable cover on the road, hitting a 54 percent clip. With two top ten offenses and a total that feels a full run too low, the over is the clearest play on the board.

Public Fade

The public sees Shota Imanaga's name and expects a low scoring game, but they are ignoring that Minnesota has a top ten offense. The Twins have been crushing the ball lately and the Cubs are the fifth best scoring team in the league.

Analysis

The Braves are hosting the Rangers in what looks like a classic pitching matchup on paper, but the numbers suggest we might see more scoring than expected. Grant Holmes has been a revelation for Atlanta lately, posting a 2.23 ERA in his recent outings which is a significant improvement over his 3.61 season average. He is facing a Texas offense that has struggled for consistency, ranking twenty fourth in the league. However, the Rangers are sending Nathan Eovaldi to the bump, and while he is a big name, his 4.04 ERA shows he is vulnerable. Atlanta's offense is ranked sixth in the league and they have a history of making veteran pitchers work. The model sees a 12.6 percent edge on the Braves spread at plus 1.5, essentially predicting a one run game. Atlanta covers the spread in 53 percent of their home games, while Texas has struggled on the road with only a 42 percent cover rate. Even though the Braves defense is elite at fifth in the league, the model still leans toward the over 8.5 because of how well the Atlanta bats have been swinging. It is a game of margins, and getting a run and a half with a home team that plays this well in their own stadium is a gift.

Public Fade

Casual bettors love Nathan Eovaldi because of his postseason reputation, but his 4.04 ERA this season tells a different story. The Braves are the better team here and getting them as an underdog on the spread is a massive value play.

Analysis

Baltimore is currently the hottest team in the American League, riding a five game winning streak and looking to extend that momentum in Houston. The Orioles have won seven of their last ten and have dominated the head to head matchup with the Astros this year, winning four of the five meetings. Hunter Brown is starting for Houston and the wheels have started to come off for him recently. His recent ERA is a bloated 4.83, which is a far cry from his 3.57 season average. That is a major problem when you are facing a Baltimore offense that ranks eleventh in the league and knows how to exploit struggling starters. The Astros defense is also a liability, ranking twenty sixth out of thirty teams. Brandon Young gets the start for the Orioles and while he has been solid with a 3.42 ERA, he has also seen his numbers climb recently to a 4.18 mark. The model is pointing directly at the over 8.5 here with a nearly seven percent edge. We are projecting 9.1 runs in this environment. Houston's offense is still top twelve and can put up numbers, but their pitching and defense are likely to let them down against a surging Baltimore squad. Take the runs and look for the Orioles to keep the pressure on.

Public Fade

People still think of the Astros as a defensive powerhouse, but they rank twenty sixth in the league defensively this year. The public is betting on the name on the jersey rather than the actual production on the field.