MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Saturday, July 18, 2026

Analysis

Spencer Arrighetti is in a bad spot. His recent ERA has ballooned to 9.72, which is a massive red flag against a Baltimore offense that ranks 11th in the league. On the other side, Trevor Rogers is throwing the ball beautifully. His recent 1.20 ERA shows he is in peak form and ready to dominate. This pitching mismatch is the primary reason the model sees a 12.6 percent edge on Baltimore +1.5. Baltimore has already won 3 of 4 games against Houston this season, and they are coming in hot with 7 wins in their last 10 games. Houston is struggling to keep runs off the board, allowing 6.1 per game lately. We are also hammering the Over 9 here with a 5.8 percent edge. Houston has the 26th ranked defense and Baltimore is 22nd. When you combine those poor defensive rankings with Arrighetti's current form, you get a recipe for a high scoring affair. Baltimore is averaging 4.6 runs per game, and the model expects them to exceed that today. Houston is 4 and 6 in their last 10, and their pitching staff is clearly taxed. The Orioles have covered the spread consistently on the road, and getting 1.5 runs with the better pitcher on the mound is a gift. Trust the numbers and the recent form of Rogers to keep the Orioles competitive or win this one outright.

Public Fade

Casual bettors often lean toward the home team in a toss up matchup, but they are ignoring Arrighetti's recent collapse. The public sees the Astros name and assumes they should be favored, but the pitching data tells a completely different story.

Analysis

The New York Yankees are currently on a 4 game win streak and they look like a team that is finally clicking. Taking them as a 1.5 run underdog at home is the sharp play here. Ryan Weathers has been solid with a recent 3.62 ERA, while the Dodgers starter, Emmet Sheehan, has been struggling. Sheehan has a recent ERA of 5.25, which is dangerous against a Yankees offense that ranks 9th in the league. The Dodgers have a great offense, but the Yankees defense is ranked 5th, which gives them a significant advantage in run prevention. The model identifies an 11.6 percent edge on the Yankees +1.5. The Over 9 is another strong play with a 4.2 percent edge. Both of these offenses are in the top 10, with the Dodgers sitting at 3rd and the Yankees at 9th. Even though the Dodgers have the top ranked defense, Sheehan's recent form suggests he will give up plenty of opportunities. The Yankees are scoring 4.8 runs per game while the Dodgers are putting up 5.2. This game features two of the best lineups in baseball, and with Sheehan trending in the wrong direction, we expect plenty of traffic on the bases. The Yankees have been playing much better lately, and getting the extra runs at home makes this one of the best values on the Saturday slate.

Public Fade

The public loves betting the Dodgers regardless of the price or the pitching matchup. They are overlooking Sheehan's 5.25 recent ERA and the fact that the Yankees have won 4 in a row.

Analysis

This is a classic case of a top tier offense meeting a bottom tier defense. The Washington Nationals have the number one ranked offense in the league, and they are facing an Oakland Athletics defense that ranks 30th. It is almost impossible to ignore that kind of mismatch. J.T. Ginn is starting for Oakland, and while his season ERA looks okay, his recent form is a disaster at 6.43. Washington is sending Zack Littell to the mound, who has been much better lately with a 3.75 ERA. The model sees an 11.6 percent edge on Washington +1.5, which is wild considering they are the better team in almost every category. Washington is a covering machine on the road, hitting at a 72 percent clip. Oakland has lost 9 of their last 10 games and they look completely lost. The Over 10.5 is a strong play too because Washington scores 5.3 runs per game and Oakland allows 5.1. With Ginn struggling to find his rhythm, the Nationals could potentially hit this over by themselves. The Athletics offense is 17th, which is respectable, and they are facing a Washington defense that is 28th. This should be a high scoring game with Washington doing most of the damage. Getting 1.5 runs with the league's best offense against a team that has won only once in their last 10 games is an easy decision.

Public Fade

Bettors might think Oakland is due for a win after losing 9 of their last 10, but the data shows no signs of a turnaround. Washington's 72 percent cover rate on the road is being ignored by the casual public.