MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, July 16, 2026

Analysis

The Phillies come into this one with a much better record than their division rivals, yet the line feels a bit soft because of Aaron Nola. He's sitting on a 5.75 ERA. Admittedly ugly for a guy with his pedigree. But the model still likes Philly to take care of business here. They've already won 4 of 6 meetings against New York this year. Even with Nola struggling, the Mets offense is bottom tier. They rank 25th in the league in scoring. It's hard to trust a team that can't find home plate to keep up with a Phillies squad that's fighting for playoff positioning. Christian Scott has been solid for the Mets with a 3.17 ERA, but he hasn't gotten much help. The model projects the total at 9.1 runs, giving us a strong edge on the under at 9.5. People see Nola's ERA and Scott's recent form and assume there will be fireworks or a blowout. I don't see it. Both defenses are middle of the pack, ranking 18 and 19 respectively. The Phillies have won two straight and are playing better ball overall. They might not blow the doors off, but they should win the margin battle. The spread edge is sitting at 4.5 percent for the Phillies to cover. I'm backing the better team to find a way at home.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see Aaron Nola's high ERA and immediately hammer the over or the Mets moneyline. They're ignoring that the Mets offense is one of the worst in baseball. Trust the team with the winning record and the home field advantage.