MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, July 10, 2026

Analysis

This matchup features one of the most lopsided pitching situations we have seen all season. Hunter Greene is taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds, and his numbers are genuinely difficult to believe. He carries a season ERA of 21.60, and things have actually gotten worse lately with a recent mark of 23.23. When a starter is giving up runs at that rate, the opposing team does not just win, they usually dominate. The Chicago Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill, and he has been much more reliable. Imanaga owns a 4.28 season ERA but has found his rhythm recently with a 3.16 mark over his latest outings. The Cubs are coming into this game hot with an 8 and 2 record over their last 10 games. They have already beaten the Reds four times without a single loss this season, winning by an average margin of two runs. Chicago ranks fifth in the league in offensive production, while the Cincinnati defense sits down at twentieth. The Reds are scoring only 4.2 runs per game while allowing a staggering 15.3 on average. It is a total mismatch. Our model sees a massive 20.3 percent edge on the Cubs run line. Even if the Reds manage to keep it close, getting the extra 1.5 runs with the better team and the better pitcher is a gift. Chicago is the play here.

Public Fade

The public often bets on big names like Hunter Greene expecting a bounce back performance. They see a high line and assume the underdog must be due for a win. We are ignoring that narrative because the data shows Greene is currently a liability every time he touches the rubber.

Analysis

The Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies in a game that the market is overestimating on the scoreboard. Jack Flaherty is starting for Detroit, and while his season ERA of 4.60 looks average, his recent form is elite. He has posted a 1.94 ERA over his last few starts, showing he has found the command that made him a top tier arm. On the other side, Aaron Nola has struggled with a 5.87 ERA, but the Tigers offense is not exactly a juggernaut. Detroit ranks twentieth in the league in scoring, and they rarely punish pitchers who are having an off year. The real key here is the Detroit defense. They are ranked seventh in the entire league, which helps explain why they allow only 3.4 runs per game despite their record. Philadelphia brings a middle of the pack offense that scores 4.4 runs per game, but they are facing a Tigers team that has won seven of its last 10 contests. Detroit is incredibly disciplined at home, covering the spread 64 percent of the time. This suggests they play tight, low scoring games that keep them competitive. Our model puts the projected total at 7.8 runs, which gives us nearly a full run of value against the 8.5 posted at the books. Expect a bit of a pitcher duel as Flaherty continues his dominant stretch.

Public Fade

Casual bettors love taking the over when they see a big name like Aaron Nola with a high ERA. They expect the Phillies to tee off. However, they are overlooking Flaherty's recent resurgence and the fact that Detroit has a top ten defense that limits big innings.

Analysis

When two of the top five offenses in baseball meet, an over/under of 8 feels like a mistake. The Pittsburgh Pirates rank third in the league in offensive production, and the Milwaukee Brewers are right behind them at fourth. Both teams are averaging over five runs per game this season. While the Pirates are starting Braxton Ashcraft, who has been solid with a 3.24 ERA, he is facing a Brewers lineup that is built to grind out at bats. Milwaukee is starting Brandon Sproat, who carries a 5.13 season ERA. Even though Sproat has been better lately, the Pirates have already shown they can handle Brewers pitching by winning the season series so far two games to one. The matchup data heavily favors the hitters in this spot. Pittsburgh is facing a Milwaukee defense that ranks second, but the Pirates have still managed to score 5.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Brewers are facing a Pirates defense that ranks twenty second. That is a massive opening for a Milwaukee team that is 58 and 34 on the year. Our model projects this game to land at exactly 9 runs, which provides a 12.6 percent edge on the over. With both teams featuring lineups that can explode at any moment, staying at 8 runs is asking a lot. The bats should be the story in this divisional clash.

Public Fade

The public is often hesitant to bet the over when a pitcher like Ashcraft has a sub 4.00 ERA. They assume he will shut down the opposition. We disagree because the Brewers offense is elite enough to find gaps even against good pitching, and Sproat is likely to give up several runs early.