MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Monday, July 6, 2026

Analysis

Reynaldo Lopez is carrying a 3.31 ERA into this start, but his recent form is even more impressive. He has posted a 1.29 ERA over his latest outings, showing he is in a zone right now. Compare that to Freddy Peralta for the Mets. Peralta has a season ERA of 4.81 and has been absolutely hammered lately to the tune of an 8.84 ERA. That is a massive gap that the market is not fully pricing in. Atlanta also owns the 7th ranked offense in baseball while the Mets are stuck near the bottom at 29th. The Braves score 4.8 runs per game and allow only 2.7 on average. The Mets are giving up nearly 6 runs per game. This has the making of a blowout. Even though the Braves are missing Martin Perez, the sheer talent gap between these two lineups is too wide to ignore. The model sees the Braves winning by 2.4 runs on average. This is a strong play because Atlanta covers 51 percent of the time at home while the Mets only cover 44 percent of their road games. The Mets have lost 8 of their last 10 games and show no signs of turning it around against a powerhouse like Atlanta. Laying the 1.5 runs with the home favorite is the smartest move on the board today.

Public Fade

The public often expects divisional games to stay close regardless of the records. They see a decent name like Peralta and think the Mets can hang, but the data shows he is currently a liability against a top tier Braves offense.

Analysis

The Padres are currently in a tailspin. They have lost 8 of their last 10 games and their offense has completely bottomed out. They are currently ranked dead last in the league in offensive production. San Diego only scores 3.9 runs per game which makes it very hard to cover a 1.5 run spread as a favorite. Arizona is not exactly a powerhouse, but they are playing much better baseball right now. They have split their last 10 games and have a better overall rhythm. Brandon Pfaadt gets the nod for the Diamondbacks against Walker Buehler. The model really likes the Diamondbacks to cover the 1.5 run spread here because it thinks the game is closer to a pickem. Arizona scores 4.3 runs per game which should be enough to keep them within striking distance of a Padres team that cannot find its way at the plate. We are also looking at the under here. With the Padres offense being non existent and the model projection sitting at exactly 8 runs, the 8.5 line gives us a nice cushion. The Diamondbacks have already shown they can compete with San Diego this year as the season series is split at one win each. Arizona is the hungrier team right now and getting 1.5 runs with them is a gift given how poorly San Diego is hitting the ball.

Public Fade

Bettors love backing big names like Walker Buehler at home. But they are ignoring that the Padres offense is the worst in the league right now and cannot be trusted to win by multiple runs.

Analysis

Toronto comes into this game having lost 7 of their last 10 outings. They are a mess and the chemistry seems off. While Kevin Gausman is a recognizable name for the Blue Jays, their offense is ranked 27th in the league. They are only scoring 4 runs per game. The Giants are not world beaters with their 37 and 51 record, but they have played 500 ball over their last 10 games which shows they are at least competitive. Landen Roupp is on the mound for San Francisco and he has a chance to keep this Toronto lineup in check. The model sees a major edge in taking the Giants as home dogs getting 1.5 runs. The actual spread should be much closer to 0.7 according to the data. Both of these teams struggle to score, so expect a low scoring affair where every run is magnified. Toronto has been a disappointment all season and there is no reason to trust them as road favorites in this spot. San Francisco has the better recent form and the advantage of playing in their home park. When two bottom tier offenses meet, taking the runs with the home team is usually the sharp play. Toronto has failed to pull away from teams all year and I do not expect that to change today.

Public Fade

The public is likely to back Kevin Gausman because of his reputation. They see the Giants record and assume Toronto is the better team, but the Blue Jays have been just as bad lately and do not deserve to be favored by this much.