MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, July 3, 2026

Analysis

Spencer Arrighetti is taking the mound for Houston and that should make every Astros fan nervous. He has a 4.00 ERA on the season, but his recent form is a total disaster at 9.00 over his latest starts. You cannot trust a guy giving up that many runs against a team like Tampa Bay. The Rays are the hottest team in this matchup, coming in with a seven game winning streak and eight wins in their last ten games. Houston is just 6 and 4 in that same span. When you look at the team rankings, the mismatch becomes even more obvious. The Tampa Bay offense is ranked 13th while the Houston defense is way down at 24th in the league. Tampa Bay scores about 4.6 runs per game and they only allow 3.7. Houston is giving up 5.8 runs per game lately. Even though the Rays are playing back to back and traveling, they have been great for bettors on the road. They cover the spread 53 percent of the time away from home. Houston only covers 46 percent of the time at Minute Maid Park. The model sees the spread as minus 0.5, but the books are giving us plus 1.5 with the Rays. That is a massive 12.1 percent edge. I am taking the insurance and backing the hotter team.

Public Fade

The public loves backing the Astros at home because of the name value. They see a 43 and 46 team and think they are due for a blowout, but they are ignoring Arrighetti's recent meltdown and Tampa's seven game heater.

Analysis

Gerrit Cole is usually a lock, but right now he is a liability. He is carrying a 4.06 ERA on the year and has been getting rocked recently to the tune of a 6.30 ERA. The Yankees are 2 and 8 in their last ten games because they cannot keep teams off the board. On the other side, Mike Paredes has been a stud for Minnesota with a 2.45 ERA. Even his recent struggles only put him at a 4.83, which is still significantly better than what Cole is doing. Minnesota has the 7th ranked offense in baseball and they are facing a Yankees defense that is usually elite but has been leaky. The Twins cover the spread 54 percent of the time on the road, while the Yankees are only covering 43 percent of the time at home. The model puts this spread at minus 1.3, but the book is giving us the Twins at plus 1.5. That creates a double digit edge. And with both teams ranking in the top ten for offense, the over 9.5 is also a strong play. New York scores 4.8 per game and Minnesota is at 4.9. With Cole struggling this much, the Twins should have no problem keeping this within a run or winning it outright. Do not let the pinstripes scare you off a clear statistical advantage.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see Gerrit Cole and the Yankees at home and hammer the minus 1.5 line every single time. They are ignoring the fact that New York has lost 8 of their last 10 games and Cole is currently pitching like a back of the rotation starter.

Analysis

The Atlanta Braves are one of the most complete teams in baseball and this matchup highlights why. They have the 3rd ranked defense in the league and they are going up against a New York Mets offense that is ranked 27th. That is a massive gap. Grant Holmes is starting for Atlanta and while his 3.96 ERA is not flashy, it is more than enough when your offense scores nearly five runs a game. Christian Scott has been good for the Mets with a 3.20 ERA, but the Mets only score 4.0 runs per game. They do not give their pitchers any room for error. Atlanta covers the spread in half of their home games and the model expects them to win this one by at least two runs. The Mets have actually won two of three against Atlanta this year, but those games were outliers based on the season long data. The Braves allow only 3.8 runs per game while the Mets struggle to find any consistency at the plate. The model also loves the under 9.5 here because both teams have been cold. Atlanta is 3 and 7 in their last ten and the Mets are 2 and 8. In a low scoring environment, the team with the better defense and the better home record usually covers the run line. Expect a professional 5 to 2 win from the Braves.

Public Fade

People see the Mets leading the season series and think they have some kind of edge over Atlanta. They don't. The Braves have a much higher ceiling and the Mets offense is too bottom tier to keep up over nine innings.