MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, June 28, 2026

Analysis

The total in this matchup feels like a gift from the oddsmakers. Mitch Keller is taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates and his recent numbers are genuinely concerning. He is sporting a 9.66 ERA over his recent stretch of starts. That is a recipe for disaster against a Cincinnati Reds team that can put up runs in bunches. On the other side, Brady Singer has a season ERA of 4.81. While he has been slightly better lately, he is still prone to giving up hard contact. But the real story here is the mismatch between the Pittsburgh offense and the Cincinnati defense. The Pirates offense ranks fourth in the entire league. They are facing a Reds defense that is stuck down at twenty-second. Pittsburgh is giving up six runs per game on average, which explains why the model is projecting a total of 9.1 runs. The Pirates have already won five of eight games against the Reds this season, often in high scoring affairs. With both starters carrying season ERAs near five or higher, there is no reason to think this stays a low scoring game. The Pirates are allowing way too many runs lately to trust their pitching. And the Reds have shown they can exploit weak defensive units. The over is the play here and the edge is one of the highest on the board today.

Public Fade

The public usually sees names like Mitch Keller and thinks of a pitcher who can dominate, but they are ignoring his recent 9.66 ERA. People are betting the under because they think the Reds offense is weak, but they forget Pittsburgh gives up six runs a night.

Analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays are listed as heavy favorites here, but the data tells a completely different story. Shane Bieber is starting for Toronto and his season has been a nightmare. He is carrying a 9.82 ERA and it has actually gotten worse lately, ballooning to 11.25 in his recent outings. It is hard to justify laying a 1.5 run spread with a pitcher who is giving up runs at that rate. Texas has already dominated this head to head matchup this season. They are three and zero against the Blue Jays with an average margin of victory of nearly two runs. Kumar Rocker gets the start for the Rangers and he has been far more reliable with a 4.14 ERA. Toronto is allowing an average of eight runs per game, which is one of the worst marks in the league. And the Rangers have been much more consistent on the road than the public realizes. The model projects the spread to be closer to 0.4 runs in favor of Toronto, which means getting 1.5 runs with Texas is a massive value. The Rangers have the better recent form and a significant advantage in the pitching matchup. Taking the runs with the underdog is the sharp move when the favorite is starting a pitcher with an ERA near double digits.

Public Fade

Casual bettors are still treating Shane Bieber like an ace because of his name. They are backing the Blue Jays at home without looking at the fact that Toronto allows eight runs per game when he starts.

Analysis

This game features two high profile lefties in Robbie Ray and Chris Sale, but do not let the names fool you into taking a low under. The Atlanta Braves offense is ranked seventh in the league and they are facing a San Francisco Giants defense that is ranked twenty-first. Even with a great starter like Ray, the Giants have struggled to keep opponents off the board. The model is projecting 8.3 runs for this contest, which is nearly a full run higher than the current line. Atlanta is a very dangerous road team and they cover the spread in sixty percent of their games away from home. While Sale has been incredible with a 2.14 ERA, the Giants have actually had some success against the Braves this year, winning three of four matchups. But the focus here is on the total. San Francisco scores 4.1 runs per game and allows 3.4, while Atlanta scores 4.8. When you combine those averages, you get a number well above the 7.5 mark. The Braves offense is too talented to be held down for long, and the Giants defense has shown enough holes to suggest a few runs will cross the plate. Trust the model projection of 8.3 runs and take the over in what should be a more explosive game than the odds suggest.

Public Fade

Everyone sees Chris Sale and Robbie Ray and immediately hammers the under. They are ignoring that the Braves have a top ten offense and the Giants defense is one of the ten worst in the league.