MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, June 26, 2026

Analysis

Paul Skenes is taking the mound for the Pirates, which usually makes people think of a low scoring pitcher's duel. But our model is screaming for the over here with a projected 9.1 runs and a massive 13.4 percent edge. Pittsburgh comes into this game with the number five ranked offense in baseball, and they have absolutely owned the Reds so far this season. They have won 5 of the 6 meetings between these two clubs while putting up an average margin of victory of three and a half runs. The Pirates are scoring 5.0 runs per game on average, and they are facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks 23rd in the league. Andrew Abbott is starting for the Reds, and while he has been decent lately with a 3.21 ERA in his recent starts, the Pirates have his number. Cincinnati is also struggling on the defensive side, allowing nearly four runs per game. The Reds offense isn't elite, but they are facing a Pittsburgh defense that is ranked 21st overall. Both of these teams have shown they can put up numbers when the matchup is right, and the current total of 8 is just too low given the history between these two this year. Pittsburgh has stayed competitive with a 5 and 5 record over their last ten games. Expect them to continue their dominance over Cincinnati in a game that should easily clear this total.

Public Fade

The public is likely looking at Paul Skenes and assuming this will be a quiet night for hitters. They are ignoring the fact that the Pirates offense has been a top five unit and has consistently torched the Reds pitching staff all season long.

Analysis

This is a classic situational spot where the schedule heavily favors the home team. The Angels are coming into this game with two full days of rest, while Oakland is playing on a back to back and had to travel to get here. That kind of fatigue usually shows up in the later innings, and we expect the Angels to take full advantage. Walbert Urena is on the mound for Los Angeles, and he has been spectacular this season with a 2.41 ERA. He is facing an Oakland defense that is ranked 29th in the league, giving the Angels hitters a great chance to build an early lead. Our model sees a significant edge on the Angels covering the 1.5 run spread. While Oakland has won the season series so far, their recent form is concerning as they have gone only 3 and 7 over their last ten games. The Angels cover the spread in 57 percent of their home games, which is one of the better marks in the league. Even though the Angels defense has struggled this year, Urena is the kind of pitcher who can mask those flaws. The Athletics are allowing 4.9 runs per game, and with a tired bullpen, they are going to have a hard time keeping the Angels off the board. This line is giving way too much credit to an Oakland team that is gassed.

Public Fade

Bettors often look at the season head to head record and see that Oakland has the edge, but they are completely missing the massive rest advantage for the Angels. Travel and back to back games are a recipe for a letdown performance from the Athletics.

Analysis

Getting the Phillies with a 1.5 run cushion while Zack Wheeler is on the mound is a gift. Philadelphia is currently 44 and 36 on the season and they have been playing solid baseball lately, winning 6 of their last ten. On the other side, the Mets are struggling at ten games under .500 and their offense is ranked 25th in the league. Wheeler is an elite arm who should have no problem navigating a New York lineup that has been cold for most of the summer. The model shows a 10.7 percent edge on the Phillies to cover this spread, as it projects a much closer game than the book implies. Philadelphia has already won 2 of the 3 meetings against the Mets this season, and those wins came by an average margin of nearly three runs. The Mets only cover the spread in 39 percent of their home games, which makes them one of the least reliable home teams in baseball. While the Phillies haven't been amazing on the road against the spread, having their ace on the bump changes the equation entirely. New York is allowing 4.2 runs per game and their offense only scores 4.1, which doesn't leave much room for error against a pitcher like Wheeler. Everything in this matchup points toward Philadelphia keeping this game within a run or winning it outright.

Public Fade

The public might be tempted to back the home team in a division rivalry, but the pitching mismatch here is undeniable. Zack Wheeler against the 25th ranked offense is a scenario where you always want to be on the pitcher's side.