MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Thursday, June 25, 2026

Analysis

The SF Giants are sitting at 32 wins and 46 losses, but do not let the record fool you when they play the Athletics. They have owned this matchup lately, winning 4 of 5 meetings this season with an average margin of 1.6 runs. Our model is seeing a massive 12.4 percent edge on the Giants getting 1.5 runs at home. A lot of this comes down to the pitching disaster happening for Oakland. Jeffrey Springs is sporting a 5.55 ERA on the season, but he has been absolutely shelled lately. His recent ERA is sitting at a bloated 10.15, which is exactly what a struggling SF Giants offense needs to get right. San Francisco is starting Landen Roupp, who is not exactly an ace with a 4.15 ERA, but he is a much more stable option than what the Athletics are rolling out. Oakland defense is ranked 29th in the league, which is basically the bottom of the barrel. Even though the Athletics offense is actually decent at 11th in the league, their pitching and defense are so bad that they cannot reliably cover a spread like this on the road. The model puts the spread at 1.1, so getting that extra half run of cushion with the Giants is a smart play. They have played better over their last 10 games compared to Oakland, and the home field trends suggest they keep this one within a single run or win it outright.

Public Fade

The public is looking at the Athletics better overall record and assuming they should be favorites. They are ignoring the fact that Jeffrey Springs has been a total liability lately and that the Giants have consistently beaten this team all year.

Analysis

We are looking at a total of 7.5 in Pittsburgh, and the model is screaming to take the over. There is an 11.4 percent edge here with a projected total of 8.4 runs. While Bryce Miller has been fantastic for the Mariners with a 1.57 ERA, the Pirates offense has been sneaky good at home, averaging 5.0 runs per game. Bubba Chandler is on the mound for Pittsburgh, and his 4.62 ERA suggests the Mariners will have plenty of chances to contribute to this total. Seattle is not a high scoring team, but the Pirates have shown they can give up runs, allowing 4.4 per game on average. The Pirates have split their two meetings with Seattle this year, and those games have seen an average margin of 2.5 runs. When you have a total this low, you only need a little bit of help from both sides to clear it. Even if Miller pitches well, the Pirates bullpen or a late surge from Seattle can easily push this past 7.5. The model is very confident at 75 percent on this play. Seattle has won two in a row and seems to be finding a rhythm, while Pittsburgh has been struggling over their last 10 games, going 4 and 6. This combination of a shaky Pirates starter and a Mariners team finding their legs makes the over the most attractive bet on the board for this afternoon matchup.

Public Fade

Bettors see Bryce Miller and his 1.57 ERA and immediately hammer the under. They are failing to realize that the Pirates score much better at home and Bubba Chandler is prone to giving up big innings.

Analysis

The NY Mets are hosting the Chicago Cubs, and this looks like a recipe for a high scoring affair. We have a 5.5 percent edge on the over 8.5 here. Just look at the pitching matchup. Freddy Peralta has a season ERA of 4.83, but he has been getting lit up recently with an ERA of 7.69 over his latest starts. On the other side, Matthew Boyd is carrying a 6.00 ERA. Neither of these guys is missing many bats right now. The Cubs offense is ranked 7th in the league and should have a field day against a Mets defense that ranks 16th and a pitcher who is currently a human tee. Chicago has absolutely dominated the Mets this season, winning all 6 of their previous meetings. They are winning those games by an average of nearly 4 runs. While the Mets offense has struggled, ranking 26th in the league, they are facing Boyd, who has been consistently poor with a 6.37 recent ERA. The Cubs have been hot, winning 7 of their last 10 games, and they are coming in with plenty of momentum. The model projects 9 runs for this game, which feels conservative given how poorly both starters have performed lately. If the Cubs continue their trend of destroying New York, this over could hit by the sixth inning.

Public Fade

The public often expects the Mets to bounce back in these spots, but the data shows they are 0 and 6 against the Cubs this year. Chicago has their number, and both pitchers are in terrible form.