MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Analysis

The Milwaukee Brewers are visiting Cincinnati and the model is screaming about a massive edge on the run line. Milwaukee is sitting at forty seven and twenty nine for a reason. They are elite. They currently rank second in the league in both offensive production and defensive runs allowed. When you have a team that scores 5.3 runs per game and only gives up 3.6, laying a point and a half against them feels like a mistake. The pitching matchup really highlights why the Brewers have the upper hand here. Rhett Lowder is taking the mound for the Reds and his recent form is a major concern. He carries a 4.82 ERA on the season, but that number has ballooned to 8.28 over his most recent starts. That is a recipe for disaster against a Brewers lineup that is clicking. On the other side, Shane Drohan has been steady with a 3.40 ERA. Cincinnati struggles to score, averaging only 4.2 runs while their defense allows 5.7. Milwaukee has already taken both head to head meetings this season with an average margin of victory of 1.5 runs. They also cover the spread in 54 percent of their road games. The Reds only cover 49 percent of the time at home. The model puts the spread at minus 0.4, making the plus 1.5 line for Milwaukee a huge value play. Expect the Brewers to keep their winning streak alive or at least keep this within a single run.

Public Fade

The public often bets on the home dog in divisional matchups, but the Reds have shown zero ability to slow down this Brewers offense. People are looking at the Reds being at home as an advantage, but their 5.7 runs allowed per game says otherwise.

Analysis

This matchup between the Nationals and the Phillies is fascinating because the starting pitching on both sides has been shaky. Aaron Nola is a big name, but his 5.71 ERA this season is impossible to ignore. He is facing a Washington Nationals offense that currently ranks number one in the entire league. Washington puts up 5.3 runs per game and they have a clear advantage at the plate against a Phillies defense that ranks middle of the pack. Miles Mikolas starts for Washington and while his season ERA is 5.47, he has been much better lately with a 3.75 mark in his recent starts. The model sees this game as much closer than the plus 1.5 spread suggests. In fact, the model spread is closer to 1.1. Washington covers the spread in 51 percent of their home games while the Phillies have been abysmal for bettors on the road, covering only 36 percent of the time. We are also looking at a strong edge on the Over 8.5 total. With two starters carrying ERAs over five and the top ranked offense in the building, runs should be easy to come by. Washington has hung tough in the season series so far and their recent 6 of 10 record shows they are playing better baseball than Philadelphia right now. Take the runs with the home team and look for plenty of scoring in D.C.

Public Fade

Bettors love backing Aaron Nola because of his reputation, but the numbers show he is struggling mightily this year. The public is ignoring that Washington has the best offense in baseball and is instead banking on a Phillies bounce back that the data does not support.

Analysis

The Chicago White Sox are one of the most reliable teams in the league when playing at home. They cover the spread at a 68 percent clip in their own ballpark, which is an elite mark for any MLB team. Today they face a Cleveland Guardians squad that they have already beaten twice this season. The White Sox have outscored the Guardians by an average of one run per game in those matchups, yet we are still getting them at plus 1.5 on the spread. Erick Fedde is the primary reason to love the South Side today. His season ERA of 4.46 does not tell the whole story. Lately, he has been dominant, posting a 2.21 ERA over his recent outings. He is facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 28th in the league. The Guardians only score 4.0 runs per game and they are going to struggle against a pitcher in Fedde who is currently in peak form. Tanner Bibee goes for Cleveland and he has been moving in the opposite direction. His recent ERA is 4.64, which is higher than his season average. The model also likes the Over 7.5 here because even though Cleveland struggles to score, the White Sox offense is ranked 11th and should be able to do damage against Bibee. With the White Sox covering nearly 70 percent of their home games, getting the extra run and a half is a gift.

Public Fade

The public sees the Guardians with a slightly better record and assumes they are the better team. They are missing the fact that the White Sox match up perfectly against them and have a significant pitching advantage with the way Fedde is throwing the ball right now.