MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Sunday, May 31, 2026

Analysis

The model projects 8.4 runs here against a posted seven and that gap is too wide to ignore. Both starters are getting shelled lately. McLean sits at a 4.40 ERA with a 7.11 mark in recent work while Junk checks in at 4.80 with a 7.19 in his last stretch. The offenses aren't exactly world beaters but the pitching is bad enough to push this thing well over. New York scores 3.9 per game and allows 5.0 while Miami puts up 4.3 and gives up 5.3. Neither team is stopping much of anything right now. The Mets own a 2 game win streak but went just 3 and 7 over their last 10. Miami sits at 4 and 6 in their last 10. Head to head this year New York is 1 and 3 against Miami with an average margin of minus 1.5. The model spread sits at minus 1.3 which lines up close to the posted minus 1.5 so the lean on the Mets is there but the real money is in the total.

Public Fade

Casual bettors see two below average offenses and assume the under is the safe play. They miss that both starters are trending in the wrong direction with ERAs climbing fast in recent starts.

Analysis

The model wants 8.9 runs here against a posted eight and the edge sits at 10.7 percent. Jordan Wicks is the big problem for Chicago. His 16.62 ERA this year and 17.56 mark recently tell you everything you need to know about his current form. St. Louis scores 4.4 per game and allows 4.6 while the Cubs put up 4.8 but allow a brutal 11.9. That defensive number for Chicago jumps off the page and suggests runs will come in bunches. The model spread sits at plus 0.7 which is well off the posted 1.5 so the lean is actually on the Cardinals plus the 1.5. St. Louis is 3 and 7 in their last 10 while Chicago sits at 2 and 8. The head to head this season favors the Cardinals 1 and 0 with a plus 1.0 average margin. St. Louis covers 59 percent at home while the Cubs cover just 38 percent on the road.

Public Fade

Most people are laying the 1.5 with the Cubs because of the better record. They are missing how bad Chicago's pitching has been and how well St. Louis has covered at home this year.

Analysis

The model projects 8.6 runs here against a posted 7.5 and that 15.2 percent edge is one of the better totals on the board today. Zack Littell has a 5.23 ERA for Washington with a recent 2.23 mark while Griffin Canning sits at 7.54 with a 7.95 recently for San Diego. Washington scores 5.4 per game and allows 4.1 while the Padres put up 4.0 but allow 6.2. The Nationals offense ranks first in the league which should create plenty of runs against a San Diego pitching staff that has struggled to keep games under. The model spread sits at plus 1.0 which lines up close to the posted 1.5 so the lean is on Washington plus the 1.5. Head to head this season Washington is 0 and 1 against San Diego with an average margin of minus 2.0. Washington covers 48 percent at home while the Padres cover 58 percent on the road. The model likes the Padres on the moneyline at minus 122 with a 3.2 percent edge.

Public Fade

Bettors are staying away from this game because both teams are around .500 and it looks like a coin flip. They miss that the model sees real value on the Padres side and the total should easily clear the posted line.