MLB Best Bets, Predictions & Expert Picks Friday, May 22, 2026

Analysis

The model sees 9.3 runs in this one. That sits well above the posted total of 8 and creates a 16 percent edge on the over. Gerrit Cole starts for the Yankees while Nick Martinez takes the ball for Tampa Bay. Martinez has posted a 1.51 ERA this season and a 0.87 ERA in his recent starts. Both teams score at solid clips. New York averages 5.0 runs per game while Tampa Bay sits at 4.8. The Yankees allow 3.3 runs per contest and the Rays allow just 2.1. The recent form leans toward Tampa Bay. They have won eight of their last ten while New York has gone 4-6 over the same stretch. New York plays on a back to back while Tampa Bay has had two days rest. The offensive and defensive rankings show a balanced matchup. New York ranks fourth in offense against a Rays defense that sits eighth. Tampa Bay ranks eighth in offense against a Yankees defense that ranks fourth. New York has struggled in head to head matchups this season. They are 0-3 against Tampa Bay with an average margin of negative 1.3 runs. The model spread sits at negative 1.2 while the book has it at negative 1.5. That difference leaves an 11 percent edge on Tampa Bay plus 1.5. The Yankees cover just 52 percent of the time at home while the Rays cover 54 percent on the road. The total projects well above the posted line.

Public Fade

The public sees a strong Yankees team at home and wants to bet the under. But the data shows both offenses are capable and Martinez has been sharp lately. The recent form for Tampa Bay and the rest advantage point to more runs than the market expects.

Analysis

The model projects 7.8 runs for this game. That sits 0.8 runs above the posted total of 7 and creates an 11.7 percent edge on the over. Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Philadelphia Phillies with a 1.82 ERA. Gavin Williams takes the ball for the Cleveland Guardians with a 3.67 ERA and a recent 5.19 ERA. The model spread sits at negative 1.4 while the book has it at negative 1.5. The edge on the spread is 9.6 percent for Cleveland plus 1.5. The Philadelphia offense ranks twentieth overall while the Cleveland defense ranks ninth. The Cleveland offense ranks fifteenth overall while the Philadelphia defense ranks twenty third. Both teams have shown recent form. Cleveland has won eight of its last ten while Philadelphia has gone seven of its three. Cleveland plays on a back to back and travels while Philadelphia has two days rest. The model win probability for Philadelphia sits at 62.2 percent. That creates a negative 3.9 percent edge on the Philadelphia moneyline at odds of minus 195. The Philadelphia home cover rate sits at 30 percent while the Cleveland road cover rate sits at 46 percent. The total projects well above the posted line.

Public Fade

The public sees a strong Philadelphia team at home and wants to bet the moneyline. But the data shows Cleveland has been hot lately and has an edge on the spread. The recent form for Cleveland and the travel situation point to a competitive game.

Analysis

The model sees a 49.3 percent win probability for the St. Louis Cardinals. That creates a 3.6 percent edge on the St. Louis moneyline at odds of minus 104. The model spread sits at 1.4 while the book has it at 1.5. The edge on the spread is 8.4 percent for the Cincinnati Reds plus 1.5. The model total sits at 9.7 while the posted total is 9.5. That creates a 2.6 percent edge on the over 9.5. Chris Paddack starts for the Cincinnati Reds with a 7.63 ERA and a recent 8.27 ERA. Kyle Leahy takes the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals with a 3.94 ERA and a recent 3.09 ERA. The Cincinnati offense ranks fourteenth overall while the St. Louis defense ranks eighteenth. The St. Louis offense ranks eleventh overall while the Cincinnati defense ranks twenty fifth. Both teams have gone 5-5 over their last ten games. St. Louis plays on a back to back and travels while Cincinnati has two days rest. The Cincinnati home cover rate sits at 54 percent while the St. Louis road cover rate sits at 61 percent. The moneyline edge sits small but the model sees an overall advantage for St. Louis.

Public Fade

The public sees a competitive game and wants to bet the spread or total. But the data shows the St. Louis moneyline offers a small edge. The poor performance of Chris Paddack and the recent form for Kyle Leahy point to a St. Louis win.